Regional security experts and international observers voiced grave concerns Tuesday following Pakistan's defense minister's declaration that the country is now in "open war" with Afghanistan after launching extensive bombing campaigns against Afghan cities. The escalation represents the most serious deterioration in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021.
As previously reported, Pakistan conducted airstrikes targeting what it called terrorist hideouts in Afghan territory, prompting fierce resistance from Taliban forces. The military action followed a series of cross-border attacks that Pakistani officials attributed to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants operating from Afghan soil. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif's "open war" declaration marked a dramatic shift from Pakistan's previous diplomatic approach to border security issues.
Military analysts warned that the conflict could destabilize the entire South Asian region and create ripple effects far beyond the immediate theater. Dr. Sarah Ahmed, a defense expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, called the situation "deeply concerning" and noted that sustained military action between nuclear-armed Pakistan and its western neighbor creates "unprecedented risks for regional stability." She emphasized that Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, combined with Afghanistan's history of proxy conflicts, could draw in multiple regional powers.
Chinese officials, who maintain significant economic interests in both countries through the Belt and Road Initiative, expressed "serious concern" through diplomatic channels within hours of the bombing campaigns. Beijing has invested over $60 billion in Pakistan's China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and has been working to maintain cordial relations with Afghanistan's Taliban government since their takeover. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin called for "maximum restraint" and offered to mediate between the warring parties through established diplomatic mechanisms.
Iran, which shares a 580-mile border with Afghanistan and a 590-mile frontier with Pakistan, called for immediate de-escalation through its foreign ministry. Iranian officials privately expressed fears that prolonged conflict could disrupt regional trade routes and potentially create new refugee flows, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the discussions. Tehran has particular concerns about its own border security, given that both Pakistan and Afghanistan host various militant groups that have previously targeted Iranian interests.
The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency session for Wednesday to address what Secretary-General António Guterres termed "a dangerous escalation that threatens regional peace and security." Multiple member nations, including the United States, United Kingdom, and France, have called for immediate ceasefire negotiations. Russia, which has maintained working relationships with both Pakistan and the Taliban government, indicated it would support mediation efforts through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization framework.
India, Pakistan's longtime rival, maintained official silence but defense sources suggested New Delhi was closely monitoring the situation for potential spillover effects. Indian officials have historically viewed instability in Afghanistan with concern, given their own border disputes with Pakistan and previous militant infiltrations. The timing of the conflict comes as India seeks to expand its influence in Central Asia through various economic partnerships.
Regional experts predict the conflict will likely intensify before any diplomatic resolution emerges, with both sides having made public commitments that will be difficult to reverse. Professor Ahmed noted that both nations have "painted themselves into corners" with their public declarations, making face-saving compromises increasingly difficult to achieve in the near term. She warned that the absence of formal diplomatic relations between Pakistan and the Taliban government complicates traditional conflict resolution mechanisms.
The economic implications of sustained conflict could prove devastating for both countries, which already face significant financial challenges. Pakistan's economy remains dependent on International Monetary Fund bailouts, while Afghanistan continues to struggle under international sanctions and frozen assets. Prolonged military action threatens to further destabilize both nations' fragile economic foundations and could trigger humanitarian crises that would require international intervention.